A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
