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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Squad Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player in a Test team being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, change is here, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

Sign up to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that train approaching, rolling round the bend, and England hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.