How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the near four-year conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House without results

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in August produced little tangible outcome.

Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Michael Crawford
Michael Crawford

Elara is a seasoned writer and cultural enthusiast with a passion for uncovering unique stories from diverse corners of the world.

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