🔗 Share this article

Only 48 hours prior to the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, and block by block. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner gained half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: multiracial, young, renters and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously backed the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it so then none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a high participation. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view existed some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in America could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.