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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.